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March 2018 (published: 28.03.2018)
Number 1(32)
Home > Issue > The strategy of accumulation of savings on the basis of deposits
in the conditions of credit policy mitigation
Shapiro V.Ya., Shapiro N.A.
The research presented in the article was initiated by changes in the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia. In the past, 2017 the period of high deposit rates established in the banking system of the Russian Federation in connection with the introduction of economic sanctions in 2014 was completed. The monetary policy of the Central Bank (CB), conducted at this time, is characterized by a decrease in the key rate, which means that the deposit rates of deposits and bond yields will decline. Actual in these conditions are the answers to the questions: what in these conditions can expect individuals or private investors, most of whom prefer to accumulate savings in deposits, and what can their strategy be. The methods of probability-statistical analysis, matrix analysis and Markov chains are used in the work. Empirical data are taken from the published data of the state corporation «Deposit Insurance Agency» (DIA). The results of the study are alternative scenarios and the corresponding types of strategies for the implementation of savings. The strategy of each scenario is visualized by graphic models. The strategy of each of the scenarios is visualized by graphic models. The models show the accumulative possibilities of using cash deposits in accordance with the strategies of the three scenarios (active, conservative and cyclical) in the current climate of monetary policy easing of the Central Bank of Russia. Merits and demerits of the revealed strategy are considered. The conclusion to which the authors came suggests that for a private investor preferring to place funds in deposits in the conditions of a possible further lowering of the Central Bank's key rate, the most effective strategy will be cyclical investment.
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Keywords: accumulation strategy, savings of the population, private investor, deposit, reduction of the key rate.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
UDC 336.64; 336.717.3
The strategy of accumulation of savings on the basis of deposits
in the conditions of credit policy mitigation
The research presented in the article was initiated by changes in the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia. In the past, 2017 the period of high deposit rates established in the banking system of the Russian Federation in connection with the introduction of economic sanctions in 2014 was completed. The monetary policy of the Central Bank (CB), conducted at this time, is characterized by a decrease in the key rate, which means that the deposit rates of deposits and bond yields will decline. Actual in these conditions are the answers to the questions: what in these conditions can expect individuals or private investors, most of whom prefer to accumulate savings in deposits, and what can their strategy be. The methods of probability-statistical analysis, matrix analysis and Markov chains are used in the work. Empirical data are taken from the published data of the state corporation «Deposit Insurance Agency» (DIA). The results of the study are alternative scenarios and the corresponding types of strategies for the implementation of savings. The strategy of each scenario is visualized by graphic models. The strategy of each of the scenarios is visualized by graphic models. The models show the accumulative possibilities of using cash deposits in accordance with the strategies of the three scenarios (active, conservative and cyclical) in the current climate of monetary policy easing of the Central Bank of Russia. Merits and demerits of the revealed strategy are considered. The conclusion to which the authors came suggests that for a private investor preferring to place funds in deposits in the conditions of a possible further lowering of the Central Bank's key rate, the most effective strategy will be cyclical investment.
Read the full article
Keywords: accumulation strategy, savings of the population, private investor, deposit, reduction of the key rate.
DOI 10.17586/2310-1172-2018-11-1-64-71