September 2026 (published: 15.09.2026)
Number 3(66)
UDC 334.7
DOI 10.17586/2310-1172-2026-19-3-3-12
An integrated approach to assessing the effectiveness of oil and gas enterprises,
taking into account financial risks
Reference for citation: Zykov N.S., Lazareva N.A. An integrated approach to assessing the effectiveness of oil and gas enterprises, taking into account financial risks. Scientific journal NRU ITMO. Series «Economics and Environmental Management». 2026. № 3. Р. 3-12. DOI: 10.17586/2310-1172-2026-19-3-3-12.
Abstract. The article is devoted to the problem of assessing the efficiency of oil and gas industry enterprises in Russia taking into account financial risks in the conditions of 2025-2026. The subject of the study is performance assessment models and financial risk factors affecting the performance of oil and gas companies. The purpose of this work is to develop an integrated approach to assessing the performance of oil and gas enterprises, taking into account financial risks, based on statistical data from 2025-2026.The object of the study is the enterprises of the oil and gas sector of the Russian Federation. The methodological base includes statistical analysis of official data (Rosstat, Bank of Russia), scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, discounted cash flow and economic value-added methods. As a result, it was revealed that in 2025 the share of the oil and gas sector in Russia‘s GDP decreased to 13% - the minimum since 2017; the industry’s profit decreased by 63.9% (to 1.9 trillion rubles); the share of unprofitable companies reached 50.9%; the volume of restructured loans amounted to 2.7 trillion rubles; the key rate of the Bank of Russia averaged 19.2% in 2025. It is established that interest rate, price and credit risks are the main drivers of financial instability. An integrated approach is proposed, including seven stages from risk identification to implementation into management decisions using stress testing and weighted Average Cost of Capital adjustment. The practical significance lies in providing tools for assessing efficiency taking into account the current macroeconomic situation in the world. The scientific novelty consists in the development of a comprehensive efficiency assessment that integrates financial risks based on official statistical data for 2025-2026. Based on the results obtained, practical recommendations are proposed for implementing risk adjusted models into the management system of oil and gas enterprises.
Read the full article
Keywords: financial risks, oil and gas industry, performance assessment, key rate, price volatility, credit risk, discounted cash flow, economic value added, financial sustainability.
References:
1. Bank Rossii. Makroekonomicheskii opros (aprel' 2026 goda). [Elektronnyi resurs]. Rezhim dostupa: URL: https://www.cbr.ru/statistics/ddkp/mo_br (data obrashcheniya: 15.04.2026).
2. Bank Rossii. Press-reliz o snizhenii klyuchevoi stavki do 16,50% godovykh. 24 oktyabrya 2025 g. [Elektronnyi resurs]. Rezhim dostupa: URL: https://cbr.ru/eng/press/PR?file=24102025_133000key_e.htm (data obrashcheniya: 15.04.2026).
3. Bank Rossii. Obzor obsuzhdeniya klyuchevoi stavki (29 dekabrya 2025 g.). URL: https://www.cbr.ru/press/event/?id=28231 (data obrashcheniya: 15.04.2026).
4. Interfaks. Rosstat otmetil snizhenie sal'dirovannoi pribyli predpriyatii v yanvare-fevrale na 43,2%. 29 aprelya 2026 g. [Elektronnyi resurs]. Rezhim dostupa: URL: https://cbr.ru/dkp/mp_dec/decision_key_rate/summary_key_rate_29122025/ (data obrashcheniya: 29.04.2026).
5. Vsemirnyi bank (The World Bank). Prognoz syr'evykh rynkov. Aprel' 2026 g. [Elektronnyi resurs]. Rezhim dostupa: URL: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/04/28/commodity-markets-outlook-april-2026-press-release (data obrashcheniya: 25.04.2026).
6. Ivanov A.A., Petrov B.B. Sovremennye problemy otsenki effektivnosti deyatel'nosti predpriyatii neftegazovoi otrasli // Neft' i kapital. 2022. № 3. S. 45-58.
7. Minenergo SShA prognoziruet spad dobychi nefti v Rossii v 2026 godu iz-za sanktsii [Elektronnyi resurs] // Agentstvo neftegazovoi informatsii. --- 13.11.2025. --- URL: http://angi.ru/news/2929366-Minenergo-SShA-prognoziruet-spad-dobychi-nefti-v-Rossii-v-2026-godu-iz-za-sanktsii/ (data obrashcheniya: 15.04.2026).
8. Interfaks. Rosstat otmetil snizhenie sal'dirovannoi pribyli predpriyatii v yanvare-fevrale na 43,2%. 29 aprelya 2026 g. [Elektronnyi resurs]. Rezhim dostupa: URL: https://www.interfax.ru/business/1086825 (data obrashcheniya: 29.04.2026).
9. Dolya nefti i gaza v VVP Rossii upala do minimuma s 2017 goda (13% v 2025 g.) // Korrespondent.net. – 20.04.2026. [Elektronnyi resurs]. Rezhim dostupa: URL: https://finance.mail.ru/article/dolya-neftegazovogo-sektora-v-vvp-rossii-upala-do-istoricheskogo-minimuma-69205741/ (data obrashcheniya: 20.04.2026).
10. Institut KShE (KSE Institute). Rekordnyi defitsit rossiiskogo byudzheta na fone obvala dokhodov ot nefti i zamedleniya ekonomicheskogo rosta. [Elektronnyi resurs]. Rezhim dostupa: URL: https://ieu-monitoring.com/editorial/kse-institute-record-breaking-russian-budget-deficit-oil-revenues-collapse-economy-stalls/846877 (data obrashcheniya: 15.04.2026).
11. Sidorov V.V., Kuznetsov G.G. Upravlenie finansovymi riskami v neftegazovom komplekse Rossii // Ekonomika i finansy. 2023. № 2. S. 67-81.
12. Kuznetsov A.V., Maslennikov D.S. Upravlenie finansovymi riskami v neftegazovom sektore // Neft' i kapital. 2022. №8. S. 45-50.
13. Orlov Yu.N. Innovatsionnye podkhody k povysheniyu effektivnosti neftegazodobyvayushchikh kompanii // Vestnik universiteta. 2024. №1. S. 98-112.
14. Sorokin N.I., Smirnov E.E. Problemy i perspektivy razvitiya rossiiskogo neftegazovogo kompleksa // Zhurnal ekonomicheskoi teorii. 2025. №4. S. 123-135.
15. Sveshnikov A.Yu., Zvyagintseva N.A. Klyuchevye aspekty opredeleniya optimal'noi metodiki otsenki ekonomicheskoi effektivnosti investitsionnogo potentsiala kompanii neftegazovoi otrasli // Ekonomika: vchera, segodnya, zavtra. 2023. T. 13. № 6-1. S. 462-471.
16. Saranin Z.A., Skhvediani A.E. Prognozirovanie i otsenka vliyaniya pryamykh nalogovykh riskov na kratkosrochnuyu finansovuyu politiku rossiiskoi vertikal'no-integrirovannoi neftyanoi kompanii // Journal of Applied Economic Research. 2025. Tom 24. № 2. S. 654-684.
17. Kan E.D. Podkhody i metody otsenki effektivnosti deyatel'nosti predpriyatiya // Ekonomika i biznes: teoriya i praktika. 2018. №4. S. 118-122.
