March 2026 (published: 13.03.2026)
Number 1(64)
UDC 336.645.1
DOI 10.17586/2310-1172-2026-19-1-3-16
Simulation modeling of an investment project: concept and toolkit
Reference for citation: Lisitsa M.I. Simulation modeling of an investment project: concept and toolkit. Scientific journal NRU ITMO. Series «Economics and Environmental Management». 2026. № 1. Р. 3-16. DOI: 10.17586/2310-1172-2026-19-1-3-16.
Abstract. The subject of the research is the tools that exclude expert influence on the initial data and expert intervention in the process of simulation modeling of the object, as which the investment project is chosen in the context of its relevant parameters. They recognize the generated events in the form of net cash flow for period of time, the effect in the form of the net present value of the scenarios for the development of the investment project, the assessment of which requires the discount rate set by the investor, as well as the useful life in the form of the expected/required period of time. The study is based on the dialectical method of cognition in the context of methods of quantitative modeling, analysis of scientific sources, investment analysis and visualization of the results of the experiment. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the approach based on the concept of the decreasing time value of money and based on the entire set of scenarios for the formation of the effect in the process of simulation modeling of an investment project in connection with the final value of the expected/required time period for implementation. Hence, the objectives of the study are, firstly, to fix the assumptions and conditions for which the theoretical provisions put forward are correct, secondly, to confirm the existence of the problem of distortion of the results of simulation modeling on the basis of a review of scientific sources, thirdly, to substantiate the tools suitable for simulation modeling of an investment project, based solely on initial data (net cash flow for period of time, discount rate, Fourthly, in checking the operability of the proposed tools. The result of the study is to obtain a workable toolkit that does not distort the results of simulation modeling on the final volume of the entire set of scenarios for the formation of the effect in the field of investment design. This allows us to conclude that the proposed method is presumably suitable in other areas with a finite scope of the entire set of scenarios for achieving the result.
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Keywords: simulation modeling; investment project; threat/danger; scenario; outcome; probability; net present value; net cash flow; cash inflow; cash outflow.
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