Scientific journal NRU ITMO
Series "Economics and Environmental Management"
Registration certificate ЭЛ № ФС 77 – 55411 от 17.09.2013
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ISSN:2310-1172

September 2019 (published: 26.09.2019)

Number 3(38)

Home > Issue > A technique for modeling and projecting food consumer behavior

UDC 366.1

A technique for modeling and projecting food consumer behavior

Antokhina Y.A. , Kolesnikov A.M. , Sokolov I.K.

Building on existing findings in the field, this research seeks to develop and test a composite technique for modeling and projecting food consumer behavior in the context of rapidly changing ambiguous environment. At stage one, a model is developed within which the behavioral patterns along with environmental and psychological factors are functionally related qualitative variables attributed with “quantitative images” or metrics indexes. These indexes form a system of regression equations, instrumental for statistical forecasting, to enable the scenario analysis of patterns at stage two. That is, the model is applied in scenario development to predict changes in a set of patterns, which constitute the predominant deterministic component of the random process of consumer behavior at the food market. To provide testing for the technique, dynamics of the food “overconsumption” pattern are assessed.
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Keywords: Pattern of food consumer behavior, composite technique for modeling and projecting, “quantitative image” of a complex qualitative variable

DOI 10.17586/2310-1172-2019-12-3-145-154

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