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September 2019 (published: 26.09.2019)
Home > Issue > Methodology for assessing innovation market capacity
UDC 339.133.2, 001.894.2
Methodology for assessing innovation market capacity
Budrina E.V. , Lebedeva A.S., Rogavichene L.I. , Garmonnikov I.S. , Abdullah M.
The article explores methods for assessing market capacity in order to expand the tools for effective innovations commercialization aimed at improving the innovative activities effectiveness of economic entities of the Russian Federation. The specificity of the innovation market is identified, which necessitates an analysis of the applicability of existing marketing methods to determine the market capacity of innovative products. The studied methods are grouped depending on the assessment approach, the key features of each group and the possibility of applying the methods to assessing the market capacity of improving and radical innovations are considered. As a result of the study methods have been identified, that make it possible to evaluate the innovation market, including methods applicable to the innovation market only under certain conditions and adjustments. The need in development a tool for assessing the market capacity for radical innovations has been identified, taking into account its specifics, because of significant shortcomings of the selected methods, such as approximation and inaccuracy in assessment, ignoring the time factor influence on the speed of innovation distribution. In this regard, the methodology for calculating innovation market capacity has been developed, taking into account the change in time of consumer attitudes to innovation according to E. Rogers’ theory. The presented methodology allows to evaluate in quantitative, volume and cost terms the potential, actual and available market capacity of an innovative product based on available, quantitative data, which reflects its versatility, objectivity and fairly high accuracy. The absence of restrictions in its application and the need for software modeling use allows performing the task of assessing the innovation market capacity with minimal labor costs. The article provides a suppositive example of calculating the market capacity of specific innovative product (TF-X aeromobile) for each of innovation diffusion periods according to E. Rogers’ model for Moscow region and the Russian Federation. The prospects of improving the methodology in the direction of assessment accuracy are identified, taking into account identified recession in innovation consumption as a result of “gaps” appearance in transfer of information about innovation from one group of consumers to another, which identified in the works of J.A. Moore, J. Goldenberg, B. Libaya, I. Mueller.
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Keywords: innovation market, market capacity, estimation methods, radical innovations, E. Rogers’ theory.
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