Scientific journal NRU ITMO
Series "Economics and Environmental Management"
Registration certificate ЭЛ № ФС 77 – 55411 от 17.09.2013
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December 2022 (published: 12.12.2022)

Number 4(51)

Home > Issue > "Evidence-based economic policy" and "evidence-based medicine": is borrowing productive?

UDC 378

"Evidence-based economic policy" and "evidence-based medicine": is borrowing productive?

Shapiro N.A., Goryachiy S.A.

In this article, the authors aim to answer the question: to what extent is it justified to borrow or trans-plant medical experimental methods of evidence to the economic soil in the management of corporations and the state. Within the framework of this goal, a brief historical overview of the formation of the method of evidence–based medicine and a description of its "gold standard" - randomized trials are given, the condi-tions and algorithm of experiments in medicine and economics are compared. The " еvidence-based " method in medicine means that evidence of the effectiveness and safety of the drug was obtained in randomized tri-als using white mice that make up the control group of "pure lines". Without the use of "clean lines", the de-gree of evidence, as well as the accuracy of the regulatory impact assessment (ODS), is sharply reduced. Showing that there are no "clean lines" in the economy, the article, however, does not propose to abandon experiments in economics in general and economic policy in particular. The need for an experiment arises from the impossibility of accurate predictions that would not depend on the changing context of political and economic circumstances. Within the framework of the well - known theory of economic policy , I .Tinbergen traces a close connection between effective decisions in the field of economic policy and ongoing experiments. The conclusions of the article are that experiments in economic management objectively cannot claim to be of a level of evidence similar to medical, but economic theory, offering solutions in the field of economic policy, should not abandon experiments. Correctly defined boundaries and possibilities of experi-ment in the field of economic policy presupposes the differentiation of models and tools for achieving equi-librium and goals of economic policy.
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Keywords: metaphors; evidence-based method; randomized trials; experiments; comparative analysis; macroeconomic equilibrium; economic policy.

DOI 10.17586/2310-1172-2022-15-4-66-76

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